Florida in the 2020 Election

It’s the turnout, stupid.

For years, I wondered how Hillary lost Florida. The state’s urban centers grew larger and bluer. Mathematically, it seemed that as long as she could increase her margin in the big blue areas, she should be a winner.

Hillary was poison. In many respects, she may have been the single largest reason to drive what can only be described as the eye-popping voter turnout for the Republican Red counties.

In a comparison of voter turnout from the 2012 election to the 2016 election, voter turnout in the red counties was staggering — often exceeding 20%! This was literally death by 1000 cuts.

Although Hillary and the Dems were able to show a large overall voter increase (largely from Miami-Dade — +82K votes, a 15% jump), Trump and the Republicans swamped the Gulf and panhandle, even converting St. Petersburg based Pinellas County from Blue to Red. More impressively, he was able to increase Red votes at a far superior rate in Hillsborough County, home of Tampa.

The win was sealed even further as 13 counties had a 20% increase in Republican votes - wiping out the very large gain made in Miami Dade for Hillary.

How the Dems can Win

Dems — you want to win Florida? Make sure Miami-Dade turnout is huge. Win back Pinellas County and in all these smaller red counties get on the ground and narrow the gap!